2008 Presidential Poll

The smoke of one of the toughest primary and caucus seasons in our history is beginning to clear enough to see the outlines of the next battle. Two popular but bloodied candidates of different generations, different races and far different political temperaments will launch campaigns that promise a dramatic new direction for a country viewed with suspicion abroad and beset by pessimism and anxiety at home.

While both parties will spend much of the summer trying to unite and energize the party stalwarts, the real work of presumptive nominees Barack Obama and John McCain will be to win over the political center — the independent, moderate and undecided voters likely to be the deciding factor in battleground states. And a recent poll by The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press shows that both men have weakened themselves with those groups as they fought to win nomination.

Those same voting groups appear torn and volatile. “In an Obama-McCain matchup, independent voters today are evenly divided, with 44% favoring each candidate,” Pew reports. “A month ago, Obama held a sizable 52% to 41% advantage over McCain among independents. But a month before that — in March — McCain held a seven-point advantage over Obama (49% to 42%).”

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